You may have noticed that coffee prices are rising. But how does something as essential as coffee suddenly become more expensive across the board?

Think of it like buying gas—one day your usual fill-up costs an expected amount, and the next, it’s suddenly higher with no clear explanation why. Like oil, coffee is a commodity. Its price is set on the commodities market, specifically the C market, which tracks the global benchmark for unroasted coffee. Right now, that market is at an all-time high. Just a year ago, the price of unroasted coffee hovered around $1.80 per pound. Today, as I write this, it opened at $4.30 per pound—a historic surge. That still fluctuates every day, but the overall trend is upward. 

So what does this mean for the future of coffee, and for you as a coffee drinker? Let’s break it down.

Why is coffee getting more expensive?

Like any market, the C market is influenced by basic supply and demand, and climate change is heavily influencing that supply. Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest coffee producing countries, have both reported smaller harvests than usual, which greatly affects the global coffee supply. 

On top of that, while the proposed US tariffs on Colombia (the third largest coffee exporter) and Mexico (a huge organic coffee exporter) haven’t come to pass, the threat of tariffs adds to an atmosphere of uncertainty in the industry.

How does the C market impact our roasters’ costs?

Specialty coffee roasters, typically small and medium-sized businesses, don’t rely on basic commodity-grade coffee or standard market rates. Instead, they build relationships with producers, often cultivating long-term partnerships that focus on quality and sustainability beyond price. However, even these relationships can’t entirely shield them from the influence of the C market’s pricing fluctuations. The C market price sets an international standard for how much coffee should cost. If the C market price goes up, producer prices naturally rise along with it.

We asked Aaron Fender, CEO of Portrait Coffee, how this has affected their coffee sourcing in recent months: 

 “The rise of the commodity market has driven up costs significantly—our best-selling coffee, Toni, saw a 73% price increase, prompting us to shift sourcing from Brazil to Honduras. With ongoing disruptions across the supply chain and an uncertain future, the best thing we can do is respond to today’s challenges and double down on the thoughtful relationships we’ve built.”

How and when will this impact the cost of your coffee?

Coffee buying happens in different ways, from purchasing so-called spot coffees (already in the U.S. and owned by an importer) to contracting coffees for the future that don’t even exist yet. Most roasters do a large part of their buying through some form of contracting futures, closely following the C market to time their purchases.

Lately, small roasters we’ve talked to have seen prices climb across some of their contracts, and while not every coffee they source will get expensive overnight, those increases are starting to flow in. 

Many see the silver lining: coffee has been undervalued for a long time, and a higher market often means producers get paid more. But with rising costs beyond green coffee—transportation, packaging, and more—it’s unlikely that roasters can absorb these shifts without passing some of the cost on to consumers. Prices have already begun creeping up, and as the year goes on, it seems inevitable that coffee will become slightly more expensive.

Our promise to you.

We're keeping a close eye on any potential price increases and will keep you informed as soon as we know how they might impact your Trade orders. We believe roasters and their farming partners deserve fair compensation for the incredible coffee they produce, and we're committed to transparency throughout the process.

That means giving you clear, timely updates on how market shifts impact our pricing, ensuring you understand where your money is going, and continuing to connect you with the best small roasters across the USA.

If you have any questions, reach out to us at support@drinktrade.com—we’re always happy to help.